GLOBAL WARMING:FACT OR FICTION
Anthropogenic global warming: Fact or fiction?
February 23, 2007
By Zachary Linhart
Global warming is a hot topic today. With recent reports coming out regarding the state of our planet, the media and politicians nationwide have locked into "we are all going to die in a fireball of death" mode. However, global warming is a lot more complex than politicians and the media may tell you.
There are two issues at hand when the term "global warming" is thrown around. The planet is warming. This is a fact. We have been measuring surface temperatures of our planet for the last 200 years. In the past 30 years, the average temperatures on earth have been steadily increasing. The second issue is the more controversial one: Humans are the cause of global warming, through our pollution of the environment. Since the second industrial revolution in the late 19th century, humans have been pumping gases into the atmosphere. In the past 30 years, the earth has become warmer. But correlation does not mean causation. So is our putting gas into the atmosphere the cause of the warming that has occurred in recent years?
If you ask Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, George Soros, or the The New York Times, the answer is a certain, confident "yes." Others are not as sure. A chemistry professor I spoke with said the last place to turn for information on this theory of global warming is to politicians or the popular media. The study of global warming is a scientific study, he emphasized, and thus scientific papers are where one should look to find out about this phenomenon.
The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which is a "summary for policymakers," gives some insight into the warming of our planet. They say that they have "very high confidence (90 percent) that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming." But the surface temperature readings only show warming in the past 30 years, not the past 250. In addition, there is still a 10-percent chance that global warming is completely unrelated to humans. As the science professor I interviewed put it, "Are you willing to bet the farm on 9:1 odds or less?"
Other scientific sources have also provided evidence for anthropogenic global warming; however, not one of these scientists is willing to say with even close to 100-percent certainty that humans are causing global warming. So many Americans and Bowdoin students are certain, but what is this based upon?
So global warming may or may not be anthropogenic. Say it is. How do we know what the future consequences of global warming are? Computer models have made predictions about what the causes may be, yet these models are imprecise. Many consider these computer models flat out wrong. Climate is an immensely complicated phenomenon, and computer models are nowhere near mimicking nature.
What we are going to do to stop global warming? Liberals nationwide have given President Bush much flak over not abiding by the Kyoto Protocol, which would require all the signing countries to bring their greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels. President Clinton did not submit the protocol for ratification in America, even though it was signed by America as a symbolic measure. We never hear criticism of Clinton for not taking measures on the protocol, but we do hear Bush bashing.
Even if the Kyoto protocol was followed though, it would only reduce levels to 1990 standards. The IPCC claims warming has been caused by humans for over 250 years! In addition, the Kyoto protocol was not signed by India or China, the two fastest-growing economic powerhouses in the world right now and also two of the biggest polluters. In order to eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions, we would have to return to the living conditions of 250 years ago! No, you say, we can develop new forms of energy such as wind and solar energy.
These "clean" forms of energy are not so clean to set up though. Creation of solar cells is devastating for the environment as the mining of the semiconductor materials requires substantial, notoriously dirty, open mining operations. Wind energy has been met with opposition from environmental groups who do not want wild land or seascapes sullied with turbines. Ted Kennedy is adamantly opposed to the wind frame proposed for the Massachusetts coast; presumably it will upset his view from the family compound. A permit to build a wind farm in Maine was just denied because it would spoil the view from the Appalachian Trail. There is one form of energy that suits our needs though: nuclear power. Ironically, many of the politicians who are against global warming are also against nuclear energy.
Lastly, let us look at the opposition to anthropogenic global warming theories. Besides the chemistry professor I talked to here at Bowdoin, many other scientists worldwide are not convinced that global warming is being caused by humans. Nir Shaviv, an astrophysicist at the University of Jerusalem, has said, "Solar activity can explain a large part of the 20th-century global warming." Dr. Timothy Ball, one of the first Canadians with a Ph.D. in climatology, believes that "global warming, as we think we know it, doesn't exist." Richard Lindzen, an atmospheric physicist and a professor of meteorology at MIT, has said, "The Antarctic is not warming and there is nothing in the models that distinguish the temperature trends they predict in the Arctic from those in the Antarctic." A quick Google search on Lindzen will supply anyone interested with dozens of reasons to be skeptical of anthropogenic global warming.
Therefore, before creating an opinion on whether or not global warming is being caused by humans, go and do the research. Look at scientific papers, what scientists are saying, and analyze both sides of the argument rationally. Do not rely on politicians and the media for your information.
700 years ago, everyone thought the Earth was flat. 100 years ago, some scientists believed you could ascertain everything there is to know about a person from feeling his or her skull. 35 years ago, there was a scare that global cooling was occurring. As a student at a top liberal arts college, it is your responsibility to do your own research, form your own opinions, and don't believe everything you see on TV.
February 23, 2007
By Zachary Linhart
Global warming is a hot topic today. With recent reports coming out regarding the state of our planet, the media and politicians nationwide have locked into "we are all going to die in a fireball of death" mode. However, global warming is a lot more complex than politicians and the media may tell you.
There are two issues at hand when the term "global warming" is thrown around. The planet is warming. This is a fact. We have been measuring surface temperatures of our planet for the last 200 years. In the past 30 years, the average temperatures on earth have been steadily increasing. The second issue is the more controversial one: Humans are the cause of global warming, through our pollution of the environment. Since the second industrial revolution in the late 19th century, humans have been pumping gases into the atmosphere. In the past 30 years, the earth has become warmer. But correlation does not mean causation. So is our putting gas into the atmosphere the cause of the warming that has occurred in recent years?
If you ask Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, George Soros, or the The New York Times, the answer is a certain, confident "yes." Others are not as sure. A chemistry professor I spoke with said the last place to turn for information on this theory of global warming is to politicians or the popular media. The study of global warming is a scientific study, he emphasized, and thus scientific papers are where one should look to find out about this phenomenon.
The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which is a "summary for policymakers," gives some insight into the warming of our planet. They say that they have "very high confidence (90 percent) that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming." But the surface temperature readings only show warming in the past 30 years, not the past 250. In addition, there is still a 10-percent chance that global warming is completely unrelated to humans. As the science professor I interviewed put it, "Are you willing to bet the farm on 9:1 odds or less?"
Other scientific sources have also provided evidence for anthropogenic global warming; however, not one of these scientists is willing to say with even close to 100-percent certainty that humans are causing global warming. So many Americans and Bowdoin students are certain, but what is this based upon?
So global warming may or may not be anthropogenic. Say it is. How do we know what the future consequences of global warming are? Computer models have made predictions about what the causes may be, yet these models are imprecise. Many consider these computer models flat out wrong. Climate is an immensely complicated phenomenon, and computer models are nowhere near mimicking nature.
What we are going to do to stop global warming? Liberals nationwide have given President Bush much flak over not abiding by the Kyoto Protocol, which would require all the signing countries to bring their greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels. President Clinton did not submit the protocol for ratification in America, even though it was signed by America as a symbolic measure. We never hear criticism of Clinton for not taking measures on the protocol, but we do hear Bush bashing.
Even if the Kyoto protocol was followed though, it would only reduce levels to 1990 standards. The IPCC claims warming has been caused by humans for over 250 years! In addition, the Kyoto protocol was not signed by India or China, the two fastest-growing economic powerhouses in the world right now and also two of the biggest polluters. In order to eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions, we would have to return to the living conditions of 250 years ago! No, you say, we can develop new forms of energy such as wind and solar energy.
These "clean" forms of energy are not so clean to set up though. Creation of solar cells is devastating for the environment as the mining of the semiconductor materials requires substantial, notoriously dirty, open mining operations. Wind energy has been met with opposition from environmental groups who do not want wild land or seascapes sullied with turbines. Ted Kennedy is adamantly opposed to the wind frame proposed for the Massachusetts coast; presumably it will upset his view from the family compound. A permit to build a wind farm in Maine was just denied because it would spoil the view from the Appalachian Trail. There is one form of energy that suits our needs though: nuclear power. Ironically, many of the politicians who are against global warming are also against nuclear energy.
Lastly, let us look at the opposition to anthropogenic global warming theories. Besides the chemistry professor I talked to here at Bowdoin, many other scientists worldwide are not convinced that global warming is being caused by humans. Nir Shaviv, an astrophysicist at the University of Jerusalem, has said, "Solar activity can explain a large part of the 20th-century global warming." Dr. Timothy Ball, one of the first Canadians with a Ph.D. in climatology, believes that "global warming, as we think we know it, doesn't exist." Richard Lindzen, an atmospheric physicist and a professor of meteorology at MIT, has said, "The Antarctic is not warming and there is nothing in the models that distinguish the temperature trends they predict in the Arctic from those in the Antarctic." A quick Google search on Lindzen will supply anyone interested with dozens of reasons to be skeptical of anthropogenic global warming.
Therefore, before creating an opinion on whether or not global warming is being caused by humans, go and do the research. Look at scientific papers, what scientists are saying, and analyze both sides of the argument rationally. Do not rely on politicians and the media for your information.
700 years ago, everyone thought the Earth was flat. 100 years ago, some scientists believed you could ascertain everything there is to know about a person from feeling his or her skull. 35 years ago, there was a scare that global cooling was occurring. As a student at a top liberal arts college, it is your responsibility to do your own research, form your own opinions, and don't believe everything you see on TV.
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